UA : У роботі проведено аналіз особливостей ціноутворення на аграрну
продукцію у портових терміналах; аналіз методів моделювання динаміки цін
на аграрну продукцію у портових терміналах в Україні; аналіз залежності цін
на аграрну продукцію у портових терміналах України від світових цін на
аграрну продукцію; побудовано економіко-математичні моделі для
прогнозування цін на аграрну продукцію у портових терміналах України;
побудовано прогноз ціни на різні види аграрної продукції у портових
терміналах України.
В роботі проаналізовано динаміку цін на зернові (ячмінь, пшениця,
кукурудза) у портах України на основі умов поставки CPT та FOB. Для
побудови прогнозу використовувалися ARIMA-моделі.
EN : The paper analyzes the specifics of pricing for agricultural products in port
terminals. It was revealed that the prices for cereals, which are the subject of
export and import, are set on international exchanges and are used for the further
signing of a contract for the supply of agricultural products. An analysis of the
Incoterms rules and their use in Ukraine revealed that most grain producers in the
country calculate prices for their products taking into account the FOB basis. There
is also an increase in sales of cereals on CPT terms. It is also rare to find such a
sale condition as EXW (Free Elevator). In accordance with this condition of sale,
the export consignment is collected from the elevator at own expense, and further
manipulations with the goods are made by the buyer. Also, problems were
identified with the transportation of agricultural products from manufacturers to
ports. Based on the results of cross-correlation analysis between world prices for
grain and prices in the port terminals of Ukraine, it was revealed that world prices
have the greatest influence on the price of Ukrainian wheat. In the work, economic
and mathematical models have been built for predicting prices for agricultural
products in the port terminals of Ukraine, which are based on an autoregressive
model and a moving average for barley, wheat and corn on CPT and FOB delivery
terms.
