Створення та функціонування механізмів міжнародного контролю за ядерним озброєнням

Abstract

UA : Об’єкт дослідження: контроль за ядерним озброєнням у світі. Предмет дослідження: створення та функціонування механізмів міжнародного контролю за ядерним озброєнням. Метою роботи є проведення аналізу діючих механізмів контролю над ядерним озброєнням та пошуку нових ефективних засобів їх вдосконалення. Наукова новизна і теоретичне значення роботи полягає в тому, що в даній роботі аналізуються діючі механізми контролю за ядерним озброєнням та досліджуються нові ідеї того, як підключити до процесу роззброєння весь світ. Новизна зазначеної теми заклечається в пошуку та розгляді нових можливостей щодо подальшого просування процесу обмеження гонки озброєння. В даному дослідженні проаналізовані сучасні тенденції в галузі контролю над озброєннями з метою оцінки перспективності створення нової системи міжнародної стабільності, яка могла б виступити в якості гаранта проти масштабних конфліктів. Питання роззброєння та контролю над озброєннями представлені як важелі можливого управління процесом зниження рівнів озброєнь і військової загрози в цілому. Також наведено варіанти інших ініціатив, які можуть бути представлені на світовому рівні, для вирішення проблем контролю над озброєннями і роззброєння в умовах зміненої міжнародної політичної обстановки. Таким чином, ми дійшли наступних висновків: З тих пір, як перші атомні бомби були скинуті на Хіросіму і Нагасакі, людство побоюється неминучої ядерної катастрофи, здатної знищити все живе на планеті Земля. Тому після завершення холодної війни постала гостра необхідність створення механізмів контролю за ядерним озброєнням у світі. На жаль, немає одностайного рішення щодо вирішення цієї та інших гострих проблем у сфері нерозповсюдження навіть серед головних міжнародних гравців. Тому в останні роки посилюється роль ООН та інших міжнародних організацій в процесі вироблення нових механізмів контролю за ядерним озброєнням. Кожного року учасники ДНЯЗ вживають цілий ряд кроків в області роззброєння та доповідають про досягнути прогрес на щорічних оглядових конференціях. За підсумками останньої конференції країни-учасниці домовилися що в процесі досягнення ядерного роззброєння не слід покладатися тільки на дії з боку ядерних держав, а й «всім державам необхідно докласти особливого зусилля для створення необхідного ґрунту для досягнення і збереження миру без ядерної зброї». У роботі було проведено короткий огляд діючих механізмів контролю за ядерним озброєнням та нові спроби їх вдосконалення. Отже, на основі глибокого аналізу розглядається еволюція підходів до режиму контролю над озброєннями, його сучасний стан, ефективність та найближчі перспективи. Загалом, зі статистичнх матеріалів використаних в даному дослідженніми можемо преконатися в тому, що загальна кількість ядерної зброї у світі скорочується, однак країни, що володіють нею, продовжують її модернізувати. Кількість цієї зброї за останній рік скоротилася на 600 одиниць. Ключовим висновком є те, що, попри загальне скорочення числа ядерних боєголовок в 2019 році, всі ядерні держави продовжують модернізувати свої арсенали. Аналізуючи всі ініціативи та діючі режими експортного контролю, метою яких є сприяння збереженню міжнародного миру та безпеки, нерозповсюдженню зброї масового знищення та протидія тероризму все ж таки робимо висновок, що світовій спільноті не вистачає нових, більш ефективних методів протидії ядерному озброєнню.

EN : The relevance of the topic lies in the fact that at certain stages of society development there is a need to solve definite problems. The number of problems, concerning the interests and destiny of all mankind have arisen and grown worse recently. Nowadays, the most crucial problem is non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The essence of this problem lies in the fact that, despite the advances in nuclear disarmament, the issue of the threat to humanity associated with accidental, unintentional or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons remains of concern to the world community. Elimination of nuclear weapons and establishment of a nuclear-free world will forever remove the threat posed by these weapons. The problem of nuclear non-proliferation occupies a prominent position in the system of contemporary international relations. International organizations aim at limiting the armament race and disarming nuclear weapons states ultimately. Disarmament measures and arms restrictions act as material guarantees for the state security. The idea of disarmament expresses the age-old desire of mankind to find the most effective way of avoiding the misery of war. Long back and till nowadays numerous projects have been elaborated to embody the idea of the world without weapons. As a large-scale objective, disarmament has been a subject of prolonged international negotiations and has defined the task of international peacekeeping movements. Disarmament should be understood as a set of measures aimed at limiting and reducing the armaments of states and military blocs. In international law, a universal principle of disarmament has already emerged. It obliges all states to strictly adhere to the current international law on disarmament, participate in disarmament treaties and activities and strive for the development of new disarmament rules and regulations. Disarmament issues are dealt with by such competent UN bodies as the UN General Assembly – the Committee on Disarmament and International Security and the United Nations Commission on Disarmament. The main direction of international cooperation in this field is introduction of a nuclear non-proliferation regime. The nuclear non-proliferation regime represent a set of international agreements and organizations with the participation of both nuclear and non-nuclear states as well as the domestic laws of the participating countries, which aim at preventing the acquisition of nuclear status by the states, which did not carry it until 1967. This regime is enshrined in a number of interrelated international agreements of different statuses. The central position is occupied by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of 1968. It should be noted that the regime of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons is institutionally developed, namely involves numerous organizations and other forms of regular interaction of participants. Two international entities are part of the regime; they are not members formally, but play a key role in developing joint actions of the most developed countries. They are the Nuclear Exporters Committee known as the Zanger Committee, which was established in 1971, and the Nuclear Suppliers Group established in 1974. In addition, part of the regime is the related domestic legislation of each participating country, especially those with highly developed nuclear industries. The establishment of peace through disarmament is possible under «planned peace», that is, the state of international relations, where targeted actions are taken, which results not only in weakening of states with nuclear weapons, but also in holt to the arms race, which will ultimately eliminate the threat of world war. Therefore, the problem of non-proliferation remains relevant in our time not only for Europe, but also to other regions of the world. Each state must implement the concept of disarmament in order to support and maintain peace in the world. After all, nuclear weapons remain the most dangerous weapons of mass destruction, which can lead to inevitable consequences. The research object is control over nuclear weapons in the world. The research subject is establishment and functioning of mechanisms of international control over nuclear weapons. The aim of the research is to analyze the existing mechanisms for control over nuclear weapons and search for new effective ways of their improvement. For achieving the above set aim, we are to investigate the following specific research objectives: – to investigate the causes of arising of nuclear arms control mechanisms; – to formulate the role of the UN in international disarmament; – to analyze the establishment and development of export controls in the sphere of nuclear weapons in the European Union; – to characterize activity of the regional organizations related to export controls; – to reveal the origins of the formation of export control regime for nuclear weapons; – to consider the plans for overall nuclear arms control; – to find the initiatives to limit nuclear weapons and strengthen non-proliferation regimes; – to explore the process of establishing export controls over nuclear weapons in Ukraine; – to follow the process of reducing nuclear weapons and involving other nuclear-weapon states; – to identify the prospects for multilateral nuclear weapons reduction. The chronological framework of this study includes the period from the start of the Cold War to the present times. The lower limit is conditioned by the first nuclear weapons tests. The upper limit is conditioned by the necessity to analyze the whole period of development of the nuclear arms control mechanisms in the world. The geographic scope of the research covers all participant countries to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and adhering to it (the USA, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea). The scientific novelty and theoretical significance of the paper lie in the analysis of the current mechanisms of nuclear arms control and investigation of the new ideas of including the entire world into the disarmament process. The novelty of the research topic consists in searching and exploring new opportunities to further advance in the process of limiting the arms race. The given research analyzes the current trends in arms control in order to assess the prospective of creating a new system of international stability, which could act as a guarantor against great-scale conflicts. The issues of disarmament and arms control are presented as the levers of possible management of the process of reducing arms levels and military threat as a whole. Apart that, the alternatives to be presented at the global in order to resolve the arms control and disarmament issues under changing international political environment were also specified. The practical significance of the results obtained is that they contain a number of generalizations that can be used in research. Conclusions. The twentieth century brought a revolution in military matters – for the first time, weapons of mass destruction were widely used as a means of warfare. Ever since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, humanity has been afraid of an imminent nuclear catastrophe, which can destroy life on the Earth. Therefore, after the end of the Cold War, there was an urgent need to establish the mechanisms for nuclear control in the world. The new threats to the proliferation regime, which have emerged since the collapse of the bipolar world and have grown in recent years, really threaten the future existence. It should be clearly understood that nuclear weapon proliferation, at least once, is able to break through the gap in the dam, which holds back the proliferation of nuclear weapons on the planet and will create a threat of rapid washing out of the entire dam. A less stable and predictable world will emerge consequently, in which all countries will feel less secure. The problems of North Korea and Iran have become particularly crucial. All attempts to reach fundamental agreements that would guarantee the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons by these countries and, at the same time, secure their legal national interests have been unsuccessful. Unfortunately, there is no unanimous decision to solve this and other burning issues in the area of non-proliferation, even among the major international players. The urgent need to rise above the conflicting, self-serving, selfish interests of individual countries and to seek consensus on this vital issue must unite all the countries with nuclear weapons, in order to preserve and strengthen the regime and guarantee security and stability in the world. There is also another trend: the global trade in defense goods has grown substantially over the last decade, reaching its lowest level since the Cold War in the early 2000s. Consequently, in recent years, the role of the UN and other international organizations in the process of developing the new nuclear arms control mechanisms has grown stronger. The development of special programs within the UN and the EU is a reflection of a serious concern about possible catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any usage of nuclear weapons. Taking into consideration the importance of nuclear safety issues for the modern world, this topic is a constant focus of attention not only for scientists, but for the entire international community. It is instructive to recall that only within recent years four nuclear safety summits have taken place already (Washington summit, April 2010; Seoul, March 2012; The Hague, March 2014; Washington, March-April 2016). At these summits, heads of the states, major government officials and diplomats tried to solve the burning issues of the illegal proliferation of nuclear technology, and thousands of accredited journalists gave publicity to the results of their work. The key nuclear non-proliferation agreements include the following ones: the 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), under which non-nuclear weapon states undertake not to purchase the weapons; the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safety standards; the Security Council Resolutions on specific cases of proliferation and potential proliferation of nuclear weapons and a number of other fundamental agreements. A package of non-proliferation agreements could provide a comprehensive approach to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and fulfillment of control, in case of its adoption and enforcement by all states. Each year, since 1996, the UN General Assembly has adopted the resolutions, calling on all the states to fulfill their disarmament commitments promptly through multilateral negotiations leading to the quicker entering into the Convention on the Prohibition of Development, Testing, Production, Stockpiling, Transfer, Use and the Threats of Use of Nuclear Weapons and on their Destruction. Thus, each year, NPT participants take a number of steps in the field of disarmament and report on the progress at the Annual Review Conferences. Following the outcome of the recent conference, the participating countries agreed that in the process of achieving nuclear disarmament, not only nuclear states should be relied upon, but «all states must make special efforts to create the necessary ground to achieve and maintain peace without nuclear weapons». Among the regional organizations in charge of nuclear disarmament the European Atomic Energy Community and the Argentine-Brazilian Agency for the Accountancy and Control of Nuclear Materials occupy a prominent place in the world. Both organizations position themselves as successfully functioning sub-regional organizations in the field of nuclear non-proliferation, which has a positive impact on the status of national export control systems and international cooperation in this field. As we can see, the origins of the export control regime for nuclear weapons are linked to the outbreak of the Cold War and attempts to halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the second half of the 1940s. One of the first steps taken towards the non-proliferation and creation of export control systems was the Atomic Energy Act, which made significant changes to the nuclear policy in the whole world. The law gave impetus to the plan of creation of an international body that would perform overall control over nuclear energy. This plan was given the unofficial name of the Baruch Plan, which provided the availability of peaceful usage of nuclear energy provided that the control over uranium extraction and other stages of its technological cycle is performed. Although there were the mechanisms to control nuclear non-proliferation in the post-war period, their activity appeared to be insufficient. The intense negotiations during 1967 and in early 1968 in the UN Committee on Disarmament of 18 States made it possible to reach a compromise and agree on the text of the treaty, which was supposed to become a major instrument in the fight against the continued proliferation of nuclear weapons on the global level. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was approved by the UN General Assembly on June 12, 1968 and opened for signature on July 1, 1968 in Moscow, Washington and London. The treaty entered into force on March 5, 1970. Simultaneously with the severe restrictions on the possibility of nuclear proliferation, the Treaty aimed to promote the expansion of peaceful usage of nuclear energy. The Parties to the Treaty undertake to facilitate the exchange of equipment, materials, scientific and technological information on the peaceful usage of nuclear energy and have the right to participate in such exchange. In order to control the effectiveness of the Treaty, it was planned to summon a conference every five years to review the results of its implementation. According to Article III of the NPT, all participating states were required to sign an agreement on nuclear safeguards with the IAEA. Therefore, based on a deep analysis of the evolution of the approaches to the arms control regime, its current status, effectiveness and future prospects are being researched. In general, on the basis of the statistical materials used in this research, we can conclude that the total number of nuclear weapons in the world is decreasing, but the countries, possessing the weapons, continue to upgrade them. This year, the number of these weapons has decreased by 600 units. The key conclusion is that, despite the overall reduction in the number of nuclear warheads in 2019, all nuclear states continue to upgrade their arsenals. Thus, the prospects of continuing a concerted reduction of the Russian and American nuclear forces are becoming increasingly unlikely, given the political and military controversies between the two countries. Totally, there were nine nuclear states in the world at the beginning of 2019, namely: Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Israel, India, China, the DPRK, Pakistan and France. All of them possess 13,865 nuclear weapons, compared to 14,465 at the beginning of the last year. At the same time, 2 thousand of them are in state of operational readiness, and 3750 are deployed in the operational units. By the way, the Ukrainian example of disarmament process makes the researchers doubt considerably that their grandchildren will live in a nuclear-free world, but they hope for the ability of the humanity to avert using weapons of mass destruction. According to experts, the enthusiasm for disarmament disappears, when referring to the events in the nuclear-free Ukraine. Analyzing all the initiatives and current export control regimes aiming at promotion of the maintenance of international peace and security, non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and countering terrorism, we conclude that the world community lacks new, more effective methods of counteracting nuclear weapons.

ES : La importancia y lo actual del tema consiste en ciertas etapas de la sociedad existe la necesidad de resolver ciertos problemas. En los últimos años, han surgido e intensificado una serie de problemas en el mundo relacionados con los intereses y el destino de toda la humanidad. El problema actual es la proliferación de armas nucleares. El quid del problema es que, a pesar de los avances en el desarme nuclear, sigue habiendo una gran preocupación por la amenaza para la humanidad asociada con la posibilidad de uso accidental, no intencionado o no autorizado de armas nucleares. La destrucción completa de las armas nucleares y la creación de un mundo libre de armas nucleares eliminará para siempre la amenaza que representan estas armas. El problema de la no proliferación nuclear está a la vanguardia de las relaciones internacionales contemporáneas. Las organizaciones internacionales tienen como objetivo limitar la carrera armamentista y desarmar a las naciones con armas nucleares tanto como sea posible. Las medidas de desarme y las restricciones de armas son garantías materiales para la seguridad de los estados. La idea del desarme expresa el antiguo deseo de la humanidad de encontrar la forma más efectiva de salvar de la miseria de la guerra. Hace mucho tiempo, se reunieron una gran cantidad de proyectos para encarnar la idea de un mundo sin armas. Como objetivo a gran escala, el desarme ha sido objeto de prolongadas negociaciones internacionales y ha definido la tarea de los movimientos internacionales de mantenimiento de la paz. El desarme debe entenderse como un conjunto de medidas destinadas a limitar y reducir los armamentos de los estados y los bloques militares. En derecho internacional, ya ha surgido un principio universal de desarme. Se une a todos los estados: • Adherirse estrictamente al derecho internacional actual sobre desarme; • participar en tratados y actividades de desarme; • luchar por el desarrollo de nuevas normas y reglamentos sobre desarme. Los asuntos de desarme son tratados por organismos competentes de la ONU como la Asamblea General de la ONU: el Comité de Desarme y Seguridad Internacional y la Comisión de Desarme de las Naciones Unidas. Las principales áreas de cooperación internacional en esta área son la introducción de un régimen de no proliferación nuclear. El régimen de no proliferación nuclear es un conjunto de acuerdos y organizaciones internacionales con la participación de estados nucleares y no nucleares, así como las leyes nacionales de los países participantes, cuyo objetivo es evitar la adquisición del estado nuclear por parte de estados que no lo tenían antes de 1967. Este modo está consagrado en una serie de acuerdos internacionales interrelacionados con estatus diferente. El principal de los cuales es el Tratado de No Proliferación de 1968. Cabe señalar que el régimen de no proliferación nuclear está desarrollado institucionalmente, es decir, involucra a un gran número de organizaciones y otras formas de interacción regular de los participantes. Parte del régimen son dos mecanismos internacionales, que no son formalmente parte del mismo, pero que juegan un papel clave en el desarrollo de acciones conjuntas de los países más desarrollados. Fue establecido en 1971 por el Comité de Exportadores Nucleares, conocido como el Comité Zanger, y establecido en 1974 por el Grupo de Proveedores Nucleares. Además, parte del régimen es la legislación nacional relacionada de cada país participante, especialmente aquellos con una industria nuclear altamente desarrollada. La introducción de la paz a través del desarme es posible con una «paz planificada»: un estado de relaciones internacionales, donde se toman medidas deliberadas que conducen no solo al debilitamiento de las naciones con armas nucleares sino también al cese de la carrera armamentista, que eventualmente eliminará la amenaza de la guerra mundial. Por lo tanto, el problema de la no proliferación sigue siendo relevante en nuestro tiempo no solo para Europa sino también para otras regiones del mundo. Cada estado debe implementar el concepto de desarme para apoyar y mantener la paz en el mundo. Después de todo, las armas nucleares siguen siendo las armas de destrucción masiva más peligrosas que pueden tener consecuencias inevitables. El objeto de estudio: control de armas nucleares en el mundo. El sujeto de este estudio: creación y funcionamiento de mecanismos de control internacional sobre armas nucleares. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar los mecanismos existentes para el control de las armas nucleares y encontrar nuevos medios efectivos para su mejora. La novedad científica y el significado teórico del trabajo es que este documento analiza los mecanismos actuales de control de armas nucleares y explora nuevas ideas sobre cómo involucrar al mundo en el proceso de desarme. La novedad de este tema es encontrar y explorar nuevas oportunidades para avanzar aún más en el proceso de limitar la carrera armamentista. Este estudio analiza las tendencias actuales en el control de armas para evaluar la posibilidad de crear un nuevo sistema de estabilidad internacional que pueda actuar como garante contra conflictos importantes. Los problemas de desarme y control de armas se presentan como palancas de una posible gestión del proceso de reducción de los niveles de armas y la amenaza militar en su conjunto. También se describen alternativas a otras iniciativas mundiales para abordar el control de armas y los problemas de desarme en un entorno político internacional cambiante. Entonces llegamos a las siguientes conclusiones: Desde que se lanzaron las primeras bombas atómicas sobre Hiroshima y Nagasaki, la humanidad teme una catástrofe nuclear inminente capaz de destruir toda la vida en el planeta Tierra. Por lo tanto, después del final de la Guerra Fría, había una necesidad urgente de establecer mecanismos para el control nuclear en el mundo. Desafortunadamente, no existe una decisión unánime para abordar este y otros problemas apremiantes en el área de la no proliferación, incluso entre los principales actores internacionales. Por lo tanto, en los últimos años, el papel de la ONU y otras organizaciones internacionales en el proceso de desarrollo de nuevos mecanismos de control de armas nucleares ha aumentado. Cada año, los participantes del TNP toman una serie de pasos en el campo del desarme e informan sobre el progreso en las conferencias de revisión anual. Tras el resultado de la última conferencia, los países participantes acordaron que en el proceso de lograr el desarme nuclear, no solo se debe confiar en las potencias nucleares, sino que "todos los estados deben hacer esfuerzos especiales para crear el terreno necesario para lograr y mantener la paz sin armas nucleares". El documento proporciona una breve descripción de los mecanismos de control de armas nucleares existentes y nuevos intentos de mejorarlos. Por lo tanto, un análisis en profundidad examina la evolución de los enfoques del régimen de control de armas, su estado actual, efectividad y perspectivas futuras. En general, a partir de los materiales estadísticos utilizados en este estudio, podemos ver que el número total de armas nucleares en el mundo está disminuyendo, pero los países que lo poseen continúan modernizándolo. El número de estas armas en el último año ha disminuido en 600 unidades. La conclusión clave es que, a pesar de la reducción general en el número de ojivas nucleares en 2019, todas las potencias nucleares continúan modernizando sus arsenales. Analizando todas las iniciativas y los actuales regímenes de control de exportaciones destinados a promover el mantenimiento de la paz y la seguridad internacionales, la proliferación de armas de destrucción masiva y la lucha contra el terrorismo, concluimos que la comunidad mundial carece de métodos nuevos y más efectivos para contrarrestar las armas nucleares.