Китайська ініціатива «Один пояс, один шлях»: перспективи для України

Abstract

UA : Об’єктом наукового дослідження виступає зовнішня політика Китаю в рамках реалізації концепції «Один пояс – один шлях». Предметом наукового дослідження є китайська концепція «Один пояс – один шлях» в процесі побудови стратегічного партнерства України та Китаю. Мета дослідження полягає у виявленні змісту, перспектив і проблем співробітництва між Україною та Китаєм в ході реалізації китайської концепції «Один пояс – один шлях». Наукова новизна дослідження полягає в тому, що в роботі вперше з використанням значного кола джерел і наукових праць провідних китаєзнавців та сходознавців різних країн на методологічній основі здійснено комплексний аналіз ініціативи «Один пояс, один шлях» як глобального зовнішньополітичного проекту Китаю. Виявлений взаємозв’язок потреб соціально-економічного розвитку Китаю з проголошенням глобального зовнішньополітичного проекту Китаю і встановлена його роль в подальшому підйомі Китаю, в зміцненні позицій Китаю в світовій економіці і політиці. В результаті проведеного аналізу були розроблені основні напрямки китайсько-української взаємодії в рамках концепції «Один пояс – один шлях». Також новизна роботи полягає в тому, що в ній були систематизовані погляди з оцінкою українських дослідників китайської концепції «Один пояс – один шлях»; визначено місце України в китайському мегапроекті на основі залучення великого масиву джерел і літератури на китайській мові і виявлені проблеми і виклики співпраці України та Китаю в реалізації концепції «Один пояс – один шлях» і його перспективи. Висновки. Проведене дослідження дозволяє зробити наступні висновки: 1. Китайська концепція «Один пояс, один шлях», охоплює велику кількість країн Азії, Європи та Африки вздовж Великого Шовкового шляху, а також виступає новою ініціативою внутрішньої та зовнішньої політики Китаю. 2. Практичні кроки реалізації проекту «Пояс і Шлях» реалізуються на основі п'яти пріоритетів, що включають політичну комунікацію, інфраструктурний зв'язок, безперешкодний торговельний обмін, фінансування та культурний обмін. 3. Визначення місця України в китайській ініціативі «Один пояс – один шлях» має важливе значення для китайсько-українського співробітництва в рамках проекту. Для України ініціатива «Один пояс, один шлях» є одним із найпривабливіших геоекономічних проектів, який не повинен виходити за межі європейської інтеграції, а, навпаки, може посилити переваги нашої країни в цьому складному процесі. 4. Реалізація концепції неодмінно призведе до посилення стратегічного співробітництва між Китаєм і Україною, сприятиме більш поглибленому економічному співробітництву, стимулюватиме культурний обмін, зміцнюватиме дружбу народів. З огляду на все це можна зробити оптимістичний прогноз, що в рамках ініціативи «Один пояс – один шлях» реалізовуватиметься новий тип українсько-китайської всебічної співпраці.

EN : Relevance of the research topic. Over the past thirty years, China has made significant progress in economic development as a result of the transition from the status of a relatively closed continental state to the status of the world’s second largest economy. The Chinese leadership seeks to use economic transformation, a purposeful foreign policy strategy to adjust the rules of the world system, formation of a huge zone of close cooperation between China and the countries around the perimeter of China’s borders. Relations between major powers are crucial to maintaining global stability. Therefore, China has established strategic relations with Russia, the United States, France, Britain, India and Germany to prevent long-term tensions and constructive cooperation. In the hierarchy of Chinese diplomacy, relations with major powers remain a key factor, and the main prerequisite for China’s peaceful development is the principle of a stable and successful periphery. Thus, the transformation of the People’s Republic of China into the second most important center of world politics contributes to the promotion of ambitious economic and political projects by the Chinese leadership, designed to transform the international economic system in accordance with the growing capabilities and needs of the country. Based on this, with the development of economic globalization and regional integration, China has put forward the concept of «One Belt One Road», which consists of two projects «Silk Road Economic Belt» and «21st Century Maritime Silk Road». For the first time, President Xi Jinping announced a strategic initiative to create the «Silk Road Economic Belt» on September 16, 2013 at Nazarbayev University during his visit to Kazakhstan. On October 3, 2013, during his visit to Indonesia, the President of China put forward a similar plan to expand China’s cooperation with the countries of West, South and Southeast Asia, as well as East Africa and Europe entitled «21st Century Maritime Silk Road». Over time, the Chinese «One Belt One Road» initiative began to cover a wider range of the countries, and the initiative itself began to acquire the new meaning. China sees this concept as a mega-initiative to promote economic development not only in China itself, but in the world as a whole. The real essence of the concept is primarily to overcome the imbalance of China’s economy, and also aims to create a new mechanism to promote mutually beneficial cooperation between the countries through the land and sea Silk Road. Restoring the Great Silk Road is of great strategic importance for China’s economic development, regional prosperity, as well as the global economic balance and stability. It is no coincidence that the Chinese concept has attracted close attention both inside China and abroad. Ukraine is an integral part of the «One Belt One Road» initiative because, as part of Eastern Europe, it is at the crossroads and interests of different countries expecting significant investments in the projects initiated by China. For Ukraine, China’s new European policy is not only an opportunity but also a serious challenge in determining its own future foreign policy in the face of the prolonged aggression by Russia. The «One Belt One Road» initiative can help the Ukrainian economy emerge from a protracted crisis by diversifying the growth opportunities and pathways. For Ukraine, which has made a European choice and is trying to join the EU, it is important to take into account the strategic nature of the European-Chinese relations and build relations with China, achieving synergies between the European countries and Chinese projects. The expansion of China’s economic and infrastructure projects in Central Asia means that the speed of transportation on the Europe-China route will tend to increase in the future. Thus, a comprehensive study of the concept of «One Belt One Road» and the compliance of this concept with the Ukrainian interests is of relevance. The object of our scientific research is China’s foreign policy within the concept of «One Belt One Road». The subject of the research is the Chinese concept of «One Belt One Road» in the process of building a strategic partnership between Ukraine and China. The aim of the study is to identify the content, prospects and problems of cooperation between Ukraine and China in the implementation of the Chinese concept of «One Belt One Road». For achieving the above set goals we are to investigate the following specific research objectives: • to study the state of the scientific development and analysis of the sources devoted to the problems of the Chinese mega-project «One Belt One Road»; • to reveal the motivation for China’s proclamation of the «One Belt One Road» strategy; • to show the practical steps of the project «One Belt One Road»; • to identify Ukraine’s place in the Chinese concept of «One Belt One Road»; • to reveal the specifics of cooperation between China and Ukraine in the framework of the OBOR project; • to analyze the problems and prospects of cooperation between China and Ukraine for the OBOR successful implementation. The chronological framework of the study covers the period from 2013 to 2019. The lower limit falls on 2013 based on the proclamation by the Chinese President Xi Jinping of the idea of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road projects, which laid the basis for China’s global foreign policy initiative «One Belt One Road». The upper limit is 2019, when the Second International Forum «One Belt One Road» took place, as a result of which the initiative gained international recognition, and the Chinese leadership began to implement it more decisively. The geographical boundaries of the study cover the territory of Eurasia. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that for the first time, using a wide range of sources and scientific works by leading Chinese scholars and orientalists from different countries, a comprehensive analysis of the initiative «One Belt One Road» as a global foreign policy project of China was conducted on the methodological basis. The relationship between China’s needs for the socio-economic development and the proclamation of China’s global foreign policy project was identified and its role in China’s further rise, in strengthening China’s position in the world economy and politics was established. As a result of the analysis, the main directions of the Sino-Ukrainian cooperation within the framework of the concept «One Belt One Road» were revealed. As well, the research novelty consists in systematization of the Ukrainian researchers’ views of the Chinese concept «One Belt One Road»; Ukraine’s place in the Chinese megaproject was determined on the basis of involving a large array of sources and literature in Chinese; the problems and challenges of cooperation between Ukraine and China in implementing the concept of «One Belt One Road» and its prospects were identified. The theoretical significance of the study is that on the basis of a large amount of analyzed material and conclusions it is possible to further develop and improve theoretical provisions on Sino-Ukrainian relations in cooperation with the project «One Belt – One Road», features of their development and place in regional and global arena. The applied significance of the study is in the fact that the materials contained in our master’s thesis as well as formulated conclusions on the problem under research can be used in scientific papers on China’s current foreign policy at the bilateral, regional and global levels. The obtained results are of practical value given that they can contribute to the adoption of scientifically sound decisions in the context of the development of strategic partnership between Ukraine and China through the light of changing international economic relations. In addition, the results of this study can be recommended for use in the educational process in the development of various basic courses of lectures and elective courses in political science, economics and history. Conclusions. The Chinese concept of «One Belt One Road» covers a large number of countries in Asia, Europe and Africa located along the Great Silk Road and is a new domestic and foreign policy initiative. The concept can be seen as an important sign of China’s growing ability to use its economic power to advance even the most ambitious economic diplomacy projects. In line with the global trends, the New Silk Road, based on the principle of mutual benefit, has a number of foreign policy strategic advantages that can help deepen China’s political rapprochement with other countries as well as unite the countries of the Eurasian region and open up their economies. Participation in the Chinese of «One Belt One Road» initiative opens up new opportunities and challenges for deepening bilateral relations between China and Ukraine. The study allows us to draw the following conclusions: 1. The Chinese concept of «One Belt One Road», initiated by the fifth generation of Chinese leadership in 2013, is the largest project of China's foreign economic policy, as it has attracted great attention both in China and abroad since its promulgation. The most intensive and effective development of this issue is carried out by Chinese scientists, who analyze in detail the political and economic aspects of the new Chinese strategy, demonstrate its essence and specificity. The Chinese government considers «One Belt One Road» an effective way to stimulate trade and exports of the initiative’s participants. Ukrainian scientists have conducted many studies and discussions on the Chinese concept, analyzing the situation and expressing their assumptions. However, the current state of bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and China, dominant factors, significant trends, impact on the economic security of the world and the state, problems of expansion and further transformation of trade relations in the world economy are insufficiently covered by the scholars. In general, this study found that the Ukrainian approach to the Chinese concept is both positive and negative. According to most political scientists and scholars, Ukraine’s active participation in the concept of «One Belt One Road» will benefit the progressive development of Ukraine and its strategy of the Eurasian integration. In turn, the European project «One Belt One Road» is being actively studied in the European scientific circles, namely, the study of China’s foreign policy in general is being intensified, which is connected to an increase of its role in international affairs and intensification of cooperation with European countries. 2. Revealing the motivation for the proclamation of the Chinese strategy «One Belt One Road», it should be said that it was initiated as part of the «new normality» of a slowing economic growth and structural transformation of China’s development model. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the situation in modern Eurasia has changed. In East Asia, the economy is developing very fast, in South and Central Asia– somewhat slowly; the economic situation in the West remains difficult. Europe is one of the most economically developed regions in the world, but the economic growth is slowing down due to the crisis. At the same time, the «One Belt One Road» initiative aims to unlock the potential for the economic growth in Eurasia through comprehensive cooperation to realize common benefits in the context of globalization. Therefore, the main purpose of the Chinese concept is to ensure a stable economic development, especially in China itself. In order to overcome the fundamental problems, the Chinese leadership has taken a course of openness in cooperation with the countries of the world, jointly participating in the implementation of the strategy «One Belt One Road». This strategy is a global platform open to economic development and tolerant for any country and organization. Implementing joint creation through cooperation in five priority areas of communication will boost China’s economy, strengthen contacts between the countries located along the Silk Road, promote regional integration, and boost global prosperity. 3. The practical steps of the Belt and Road project are implemented on the basis of five priorities, including political communication, infrastructural communication, unimpeded trade, financing and cultural exchange. Taking these factors into account, the New Silk Road project called for an additional impetus to China’s economic development at the first stage of implementation. The implementation of the initiative is related to China’s economic development goals, foreign economic and foreign policy goals, namely: finding new external and domestic sources of growth, stimulating the transition to a more balanced development model that includes domestic consumption, services and export orientation; further modernization of the Chinese economy, stimulating innovative production and increasing its role in the value chain by expanding activities in the vast macro- and transregional space. The Chinese initiative is able to make a significant contribution to the development of large areas, especially Asia and Eurasia, in the field of infrastructure and multimodal interconnection. Expanding investment, financing and the opportunities for various economic projects has the potential to create a new source of growth, integration and development for all countries of the Belt and Road. 4. Defining Ukraine’s place in the Chinese «One Belt One Road» initiative is important for the Sino-Ukrainian cooperation within the project. For Ukraine, the «One Belt One Road» initiative is one of the most attractive geoeconomic projects, which should not go beyond European integration, but, on the contrary, can strengthen the advantages of our country in this complex process. Among the European countries, Ukraine was the first country to express support for the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s initiative and continued to make statements at the same high level about the importance of participating in the «One Belt One Road» initiative. Ukraine still lacks an understanding of the initiative as a systemic innovation strategy that not only changes the existing geoeconomic model of Eurasia and aims to create a new regional economic space, but is also a new model of China’s foreign policy. In general, Ukraine’s participation in the initiative is determined by the current state of the Ukrainian-Chinese relations, which, although they have a high level of strategic partnership, are not implemented in practice. Unfortunately, the statements of the country’s top leadership are mostly declarative in nature, and Ukraine actually remains out of the initiative, as it has no relations with the Silk Road Fund and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, does not participate in the relevant projects. 5. The study found that among all the areas of strategic partnership, one of the most effective is cooperation in the international area, reflecting the interests of the peoples of both countries, their desire for security, social and economic development, prosperity, independence and non-pressure form the higher developed countries. Ukraine and China have moved from the coordination of individual steps to the stage of joint initiatives and coordination of actions, while the Chinese side is convinced of its leading role in the strategic partnership. It should be noted that Ukraine and China currently continue to explore the potential of Ukraine’s participation in the «One Belt One Road» project, but it is clear that Ukraine has focused on transport and logistics projects, although the potential of the «One Belt One Road» project is significantly greater. In particular, the Chinese government is interested in cooperation with Ukraine in trade, economic, investment and high technologies such as aviation, shipbuilding, bioengineering, development of new materials. 6. Overall, it should be noted that Ukraine’s cooperation with China can have both advantages and threats. Thus, the study found that there are some difficulties in the process of cooperation between Beijing and Ukraine – the internal barrier and external intervention complicate intensive cooperation within the Belt and Road project. It is possible to list the existing problems that hinder the process of in-depth cooperation. First, the difficult economic situation in Ukraine. In recent years, due to the conflict in the east of the country, as well as due to the economic contradictions that have arisen between Ukraine and Russia, and other CIS countries, the socio-economic situation in Ukraine is characterized by a deep, unprecedented crisis. Secondly, not only does the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in the east of the country have a negative impact on the economy, but it also poses serious social and humanitarian threats. Thus, it should be noted that the Chinese concept of «One Belt One Road» is a path that can result in the mutual benefit and win-win results. The implementation of the concept will inevitably lead to the enhancing of strategic cooperation between China and Ukraine, contribute to the deepening of economic cooperation, stimulation of cultural exchange, and strengthening of friendship between peoples. In view of all the above-stated, it is possible to make an optimistic forecast that a new type of comprehensive Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation will be implemented within the framework of the «One Belt One Road» initiative.